It's July, so that means Big Ten Media Days are underway. The annual Big Ten Media Preseason Poll was released to kick off the event, with Ohio State expected to be the conference’s best team while the Huskers come in at 8th. This aligns with my expectations for Nebraska football in 2024, but over the last decade, the media has been wrong about one team more than any other. As I’ve written, Nebraska football has been on a historic run of falling short of expectations.
Since Rutgers and Maryland joined the Big Ten, Nebraska football has finished an average of 1.3 spots lower than the media's preseason poll expectations. This places them as the team with the biggest gap between predictions and performance.
Division rival Wisconsin has been the second biggest underperformer with an average finished 1.2 spots lower than preseason expectations. The 2014 season stands out as the only one where the Huskers managed to exceed expectations, having been picked 3rd in the West but finishing in 2nd. The 2018 season, with its tremendous second half, saw the media predict Nebraska would win the West in 2019. However, a 5-7 finish meant the Huskers ended up in 5th place, marking their most significant drop.
No football program since 1900 has lost more games by 8 points or fewer in a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 year span than the #Huskers
— Arbitrary Analytics (@arbitanalytics) November 24, 2023
Nebraska football hasn't met media expectations
Nebraska’s four-place drop in 2019 is tied for the most significant underperformance in the Big Ten in the East-West era. In 2022, Wisconsin was predicted to win the division but also dropped to fifth place in a season in which the Badgers replaced Paul Chryst ultimately with Luke Fickell. Both of the predicted third-place finishers in 2021, Northwestern and Indiana, finished last in their divisions.
Since the Big Ten expanded to 14 teams, no team has underperformed their Big Ten Media Days Poll expectation than the #Huskers. Illinois has exceeded the media's expectations more than any other team. Iowa has perfectly met expectations pic.twitter.com/ps8PBFaVQP
— Arbitrary Analytics (@arbitanalytics) July 23, 2024
Northwestern entered the 2023 season in turmoil after Pat Fitzgerald was fired in July and replaced by David Braun. It was predictably expected to finish last in the Big Ten West. The first-year coach had an incredible season, grabbing Big Ten Coach of the Year honors for getting Northwestern into second place in the division.
This wasn’t the first time Northwestern accomplished a five-spot jump. The Wildcats won the West after being picked 6th in the COVID-shortened 2020 season. In 2019, Minnesota also accomplished the feat of a 6th-place predicted finish to a division title.
In the division formerly known as the Big Ten West, Nebraska football is expected to finish third—slightly higher than its average Media Days poll position of 3.4. I think the Huskers meet this expectation in 2024. The black and yellow team from across the river offers a good glimpse into what the Huskers could expect this season. In 2012, Iowa had a first-year OC and DC and finished with the 113th scoring offense but the 33rd-ranked scoring defense.
The following season, with a new QB, Iowa jumped to the 80th-scoring offense and 9th-scoring defense. The 2023 Nebraska football team was 123rd in scoring and 13th in scoring defense. A jump to just the 80th-ranked scoring offense should be enough for an 8-4 regular season record and, finally, a bowl game in December.