There’s been a lot of digital ink spilled about how hard the Nebraska football team’s schedule will be once they get to the Big Ten part of the calendar. However, as hard as the heart of that slate will be, the Huskers have a rather easy lead-in with non-conference games that should allow Matt Rhule’s team to start 3-0. Just ahead of Big Ten Media Days and the start of fall camp, ESPN has released all of its FPI rankings that show just how successful it believes the Cornhuskers will be in the 2026 season.
Each of these games is broken down with how good the Huskers’ opponents are ranked in the FPI and the probability that NU could get the win, or the probability of a loss when it comes to some of the tougher teams on the schedule.
Nebraska football predicted schedule based on ESPN’s FPI
Ohio: Nebraska will open the season on September 5 against the Ohio Bobcats. A few years ago, this matchup would have been more attractive because former Husker head coach Frank Solich was leading the program. Now, it’s schedule fodder.
Nebraska, which is the No. 30 team in ESPN’s FPI rankings, should be able to roll over No. 97 Ohio. The site gives the Huskers a 91.7%chance of victory. In other words, it would be insane if they didn’t start the year 1-0. Still, the Bobcats are coming off a very good bowl season last year. They posted a 9-4 record and finished second in the MAC.
Bowling Green: On September 12, another MAC team will come to Lincoln in the Bowling Green Eagles. They’re seen as quite a bit worse than Ohio, ranked as the No. 123 team in the 138-team FPI ratings. There is an interesting note as Eddie George is now leading them. The former Ohio State running back stole a Heisman trophy from Tommie Frazier.
Nebraska has a 95.7% chance of winning this game, and it appears the Huskers will get a measure of revenge on the former Buckeye and his squad.
North Dakota: North Dakota is one of the better FCS teams in the country, which is probably why the Huskers actually have a lower probability of beating them than they do against Bowling Green. Still, the third game of the season sees NU with a 94% chance of a victory.
With the first three games all carrying a better than 90% chance of a win, Nebraska has no excuse to start the year with anything but a 3-0 record.
Michigan State: Pat Fitzgerald and Michigan State visit Lincoln on September 26 for the Big Ten opener, and the Huskers earned a 67.9% chance of victory over the Spartans. There is a wild card here as Fitzgerald has managed to do more with less at Northwestern and he has more than a few victories over NU.
Still, Nebraska should start 4-0 against the No. 65 team in the FPI, though 67.9% means that it’s far from a sure thing.
Maryland: If Nebraska can take care of business and get the wins it’s expected to get, the Cornhuskers will start the year 5-0 and just one win away from bowl eligibility. ESPN’s FPI gives Matt Rhule’s squad a 79% chance of beating Maryland, which is the No. 61 team in the rankings.
Indiana: While many analysts have pegged this game as one where Nebraska could pull off an upset, the Hoosiers have an 81% chance of getting the victory. That’s hardly a surprise as Indiana is the No. 6 team in the FPI ratings.
At Oregon: The Ducks, in Eugene, will be a heck of a challenge for the Huskers. Nebraska has just an 8% chance of a victory in this game. That’s the lowest probability of any game in 2026.
vs Washington: When the Huskies come to Lincoln, it will be the first real tossup of the season, at least as of now. Washington is the No. 26 team in the FPI, but NU has a 56.8% chance of winning mainly because of home-field advantage.
At Illinois: This stretch against the Huskies and Illini marks two of their best chances to get to six wins and a third straight bowl game. However, it won’t be easy. This is another toss-up game as the Huskers have a 50.8% chance against the No. 39 team in the FPI rankings.
At Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights actually offer NU the best chance of getting to six wins, if they lose to Washington and Illinois. Matt Rhule’s squad has a 67.5% chance of winning. It helps that by this point in the schedule the Huskers could already have six wins and are looking for No. 7. If they can beat either the Illini or Huskies, the bowl game pressure will be off, and the rest of the schedule will be gravy.
Ohio State: This matchup is an interesting one because the Buckeyes are the top-ranked FPI team, but Nebraska has a better chance of beating them (10.6%) than they do of Oregon. It probably helps that NU has nearly upset Ohio State in recent seasons, including 2024 when OSU won the national title.
At Iowa: Plenty of Nebraska fans will be annoyed at how low the Huskers’ win probability is for this game. NU has just a 38.4% chance of upending the Hawkeyes in Iowa City. Granted this, and all the other games can and will change as the season goes on.
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