Nebraska football must turn the tide on turnovers in 2024

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have had a horrifying run of turnover-laden seasons. It's a run of historic proportions. Seven straight years without a positive turnover margin. Six of those have been negative.

It's translated to seven straight losing seasons.

But it's worse than that, and you probably don't need a reminder.

In the past 24 seasons (2000-2023), Nebraska has a -84 turnover margin. That is dead last in FBS college football. Nebraska has had only four seasons with a positive turnover differential in that span: 2002, 2023, 2009, and 2016.

[Sidebar: If it weren't for a phenomenal year in 2003 when they were +23 (yes, +23, you read that right), that number would be even more unsightly.]

Here are Nebraska's turnover stats for each of the past 24 seasons:

Since the turn of the millenium, the Huskers have had five--five!--seasons with more takeaways than giveaways. Just twice they have been even in turnovers for the year.

Charting Nebraska football turnovers in season openers since 2000

As I look ahead to Nebraska's first game next month against UTEP, I'm curious if they can start the season with a win.

My gut said turnover differential would have something to do with it. So, I looked back at every season opener since 2000. Here's the big picture. Nebraska is:

• 8-0 when they have a positive turnover margin.
• 6-1 when the turnover margin is even.
• 4-5 when they have a negative turnover margin.

The last time Nebraska won the turnover margin in the season opener was in 2019. That's also the last season the Huskers started 1-0.

In the four games they won with a negative margin, other key variables impacted the game just as much, if not more, than turnovers:

• 2000 vs. San Jose State (-2). Nebraska ran for 505 yards against a severely outmatched San Jose State team. The Spartans also had 12 penalties to Nebraska's four.
• 2001 vs. TCU (-1). The Blackshirts held TCU to 186 total yards of offense.
• 2005 vs. Maine (-3). As pitiful as Nebraska's offense was, Maine was worse with only 145 yards of offense.
• 2011 vs. Chattanooga (-1). The Mocs only held the ball for 19 minutes, and mustered just 231 yards of offense.

In other words, to win with a negative turnover margin, Nebraska had to absolutely dominate defensively or scorch the opponent offensively.

Then there's this. In the eight seasons Nebraska had a positive turnover margin in the season opener, they went on to be even or positive in turnovers for the season six times. In fact, Nebraska has only had a positive turnover margin for the season once in the last 24 years when they haven't won the turnover battle in the season opener (in 2000).

There's something to be said for opening up with a bang to set the turnover tone for the season.

Every year is different. Every team is different. But this is a large enough sample size to tell me that if Nebraska football wants to get out of the gate with a win, it needs to be plus (or at least be even) on turnovers against UTEP. And if they want to have a positive differential come November, that first game matters a whole heck of a lot.

The really shocking thing about Nebraska football's turnover problems

It's easy to think that the statistical anomaly here is that Nebraska would be this bad at turnovers for so long. Like, eventually, the tide has to turn, right? I've heard fans and pundits say, "Nebraska won't keep turning the ball over forever."

But research shows that a college team with a +1 turnover margin per game has a 98% chance of a winning season. That's based on seven years of data from 2008–2015.

The issue for Nebraska? From 2000 to 2016, Nebraska was winning games. In fact, they won a lot more than they lost, except for a few seasons.

That's why, to me, the turnover trend for Nebraska is not the anomaly. What is?

It's that Nebraska had so many winning seasons with a negative turnover differential. It's almost unheard of to win as many games as Nebraska did from 2000-2016 with only four positive turnover margin years. Eleven of those seasons were non-losing seasons. Nebraska had 10 wins in several and even 11 wins in 2001.

When you look at the research, you realize Nebraska defied the odds. Every fumble, every interception...they were playing with fire.

Until finally it caught up to them.

Seven straight losing seasons.

You've watched the games. For many losses, it was a lack of talent (every Ohio State loss) or boneheaded coaching (I'm looking at you, Northwestern in Dublin).

But for most, it was turning the ball over, usually at the worst possible times. Or failing to generate any takeaways on defense in key situations.

Since 2017, Nebraska is -40 in turnover margin. Only in one year (2019) were they even. That's an average of almost -6 in turnover margin per year.

It's a miracle Nebraska has won as many games as they have in the past seven years.

A major prediction for the 2024 Nebraska football team

If Nebraska can have an even or positive turnover differential in 2024, they will have a winning season.

It's really that simple.

Don't give the ball away. Take the ball away. You will win games.

Nebraska's offense doesn't need to be the greatest show on field turf. Just hold onto the ball, especially before half and in the 4th quarter.

Dylan Raiola doesn't need to be the second coming of Patrick Mahomes. Just manage the game, make good decisions, and move the chains.

This weekend, Phil Steele shared in a recent podcast that he believes Nebraska will be a much-improved team this year. He researched turnover trends over four years and observed that 75% of teams with double-digit turnovers had a better record the next year.

While Nebraska has technically improved over the last three years (3-9 to 4-8 to 5-7), we can all agree the improvement hasn't been dramatic.

It's been eight years since Nebraska had a positive turnover margin. That also happens to be the last year Nebraska had a winning record.

Nebraska's defense will be good enough to win games. The Husker offense needs to stop giving games away.

My prediction? This is the year the turnover tide finally changes. More takeaways. Fewer giveaways.

A positive differential, a winning record, and a Nebraska football bowl game as the cherry on top.

Bank on it.