When the Nebraska basketball team tips off its NCAA Tournament run, there are lots of things they'll need to do on both sides of the court to log the school's first-ever win in the Big Dance. Everything the Huskers need to accomplish comes down to one number. 70.
Quite a lot will be made of NU's offense, especially when talking about All-Big Ten forward Pryce Sandfort and the conference's best sixth man, Braden Frager. However, as HuskerMax analyst Dave Feit recently pointed out, the defense will be far more of a determining factor if Nebraska wants to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.
Feit pointed out that since Nate Loenser has been the architect of Nebraska's defense, there's a very distinct dividing line between winning and losing. If Nebraska can hold Troy under 70 points, Fred Hoiberg's squad will likely head to the second round for the first time ever.
As much as folks want to worry about Nebrasketball's offense, this team will go as far as the defense takes them.
— Dave Feit (@FeitCanWrite) March 16, 2026
In the Nate Loenser era, 70 points is the magic number.
64-9 when allowing < 70
32-60 when allowing 70+
3-34 when allowing 80+
Nebraska basketball's Nate Loenser built a defense with one very clear winning formula
The flip side of that number is that if Troy can reach 71 points or more, NU could be headed for more pain and a 0-8 record in the Big Dance. That's something the Cornhuskers have delivered too often, even as a much higher seed than their opponent.
In total, during the Nate Loenser era, Nebraska is 64-9 when holding opponents to less than 70 points. The Huskers are an amazing 20-1 this season when they hold teams under that mark. Their only loss was the 57-52 defeat at Iowa. That record also demonstrates that they Loenser's an effective architect as they've only allowed more than 70 points 11 times this season.
Things usually get bad when they allow a bushel of scoring. During the "Loenser era," the Huskers are 32-60 when allowing over 70 points. When they allow 80+ points, things get worse as they're 3-34.
The good news included in those rather abysmal numbers is that Nebraska has been better this year, even when its defense falters. NU is 6-5 this season when they allow more than 70 points. All three of their wins where they allowed more than 80 points came this season.
The Cornhuskers actually went 3-1 when allowing 80-plus points. Still, that mark isn't something they want to try and mess around with.
So, how likely are the Trojans to push history and score more than 70 points? Their offense has been very good in, though it's also scored a bucket of points against lesser opponents. Troy has scored 70 or more in 25 of their 33 games this season. They've scored 100 six times and added another game where they got to 99.
Loenser also knows that one of those 100-point games came against a Big Ten opponent, USC. Of course, both Trojans needed triple overtime to hit that number.
The story is clear for this version of the Nebraska basketball team. If it can hold Troy under 70 points, it's almost guaranteed a win. If the first round of the NCAA Tournament game turns into a shootout, things could get tense.