Matt Rhule may have just fixed his biggest problem as the head coach of Nebraska

One Nebraska fan's shirt said it all on Thursday night at Arrowhead Stadium as the Cornhuskers opened their 2025 season, Matt Rhule’s third year at the helm, against Cincinnati. “We almost always almost win.” 

Then, Nebraska didn’t “almost win,” they did what has become so uncommon for Nebraska over Rhule’s brief tenure, pulled out a close game. Senior defensive back Malcolm Hartzog Jr., one play after a penalty that moved Cincinnati into field goal range, sealed the 20-17 win over the Bearcats with an interception of quarterback Brendan Sorsby. The win was the fourth in a one-score game under Rhule in 15 tries. 

Is Nebraska football starting to turn things around in close games?

It’s a small sample size, just one game in 2025, but it’s a good sign that Nebraska was able to pull out the game nonetheless, especially after the Husker offense left the door open for a comeback. 

After sophomore quarterback Dylan Raiola threw a touchdown to Dane Key with 10:36 left in the fourth quarter to take a 20-10 lead, Cincinnati answered with a score of its own, giving the ball back to Nebraska with just over seven minutes remaining. A long drive and a score could have put the game out of reach, but Nebraska moved the ball just 36 yards on 10 plays, chewing up nearly five minutes of game time in the process. 

Raiola took a bad sack on second-and-12 from the Cincinnati 44-yard line, pushing the Huskers out of field goal range and forcing them to punt the ball back with still over two minutes on the clock. Though it won a low-scoring game on Thursday night, the offense needs to be the strength of this year’s Nebraska team, especially after Rhule lost his six most productive pass rushers from last year’s team. 

Ideally, Raiola would have closed the game out on offense and maybe not even left it to be a one-score contest. It’s an encouraging sign that the Huskers pulled it out and made the big play on defense, but the question remains: Is Rhule turning things around, or did his luck just turn in close games? 

The Raiola sack and Hartzog penalty are the exact plays that often cost teams in one-score games. However, there’s just an element of randomness to football, and eventually a record in one-score games is going to regress towards .500. The key to being a team that competes for a spot in the College Football Playoff, where those with the most optimistic views on Nebraska see the team this year, is to stay out of one-score game and decide it in the first 58 minutes, not the final two.