Arbitrary Nebraska Football stat of the week: Fun with extrapolation

Nine games into the season, the Nebraska football offense was looking bleak. They had only averaged 23.6 points per game, which would tie Troy for 98th in the nation. Their yardage was only slightly better, ranking 97th at 354 yards per game. It was clear that Matt Rhule would need to make a change at play-caller this offseason to try to boost the output of a talented offense. Instead, Rhule made the drastic move and brought in offensive guru Dana Holgorsen to run the offense for the rest of the season. The gamble was enough to get the Huskers to their first bowl game since 2016, an important milestone for the critical year three of the Matt Rhule era.

This week is a reason to celebrate, so we’ll have some fun with extrapolation. What would this offensive output look like if averaged over a 12-game season instead of just the two that Holgorsen’s coached? USC and Wisconsin certainly aren’t the most challenging defenses in the country and rank in the bottom half of the Big Ten. However, their defenses are still better than those of Rutgers, Purdue, UTEP, or Northern Iowa, so the improvement is still noteworthy.

Points per game is the biggest boost in any stat category between play callers. Holgorsen’s Huskers have averaged 32 points per game. This would tie Liberty at 39th in the nation. The last Nebraska football team to score more than this was the 2015 squad, averaging 32.5 points per game.

Nebraska football and the Dana Holgorsen effect

In terms of a yardage perspective, the Holgorsen offense would average nearly 250 passing yards per game and 150 yards rushing per game. Since 2000, only 26 Big Ten offenses managed 3000 yards passing and 1800 yards rushing through 12 games. Nebraska football managed this twice in 2015 and 2021. Clearly, yardage volume isn’t enough, considering those two Husker squads missed bowl games. Among the 26 Big Ten teams on this list, the 2021 group threw for the fewest touchdowns, while the 2015 version threw the most interceptions.

Dylan Raiola’s accuracy improvement over the last two games is perhaps the most impressive improvement. Three straight games completing 70% of his passes, he dipped below that for six straight. Since the change at play-caller, he’s back over 70%. After those three games, I wrote about the 70%, 8 yard per attempt club (he needs to go 42/42 for 720 yards against Iowa to join again). His pace with Holgorsen is part of an even more elite club.

Since 1956, only 61 players have thrown for 2900 yards on a 70% completion rate, Dylan Raiola’s pace through two games. Graham Harrell, Case Keenum, Brandon Weeden, and Geno Smith are responsible for six of these seasons. What is the common tie between those players? Dana Holgorsen was their OC or HC before accomplishing the feat (three occurred the year after he left that program).

While it’s a small sample size, the Dana Holgorsen effect appears to have made an impact. However, the Iowa game certainly will be a much tougher challenge than his first two matchups. Without the pressure of needing to win to make a bowl game, I think the offense will continue to play free and loose. If Nebraska football is as aggressive on offense as it was against Wisconsin, it could produce another big day.