Husker Corner
Fansided

Nebraska Football: Addressing the ESPN FPI Death Sentence

By Troy Pilkington

Sep 24, 2016; Evanston, IL, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Mike Riley watches his team during the second half against the Northwestern Wildcats at Ryan Field. The Cornhuskers won 24-13. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 24, 2016; Evanston, IL, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Mike Riley watches his team during the second half against the Northwestern Wildcats at Ryan Field. The Cornhuskers won 24-13. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports /
facebooktwitterreddit

ESPN’s Football Power Index (or FPI) has projected Nebraska Football will go either 6-6 or 5-7 in 2017.

Is all the fan hype surrounding the program thanks to the quarterback battle and Bob Diaco unwarranted or is ESPN setting the Huskers up to be a national surprise?

Nebraska was tabbed to finish 58th in the country with 5.5 wins and 6.5 losses sporting an FPI ranking of 1.5.

Okay, that’s a lot of numbers, what does it all really mean?

For starters, Rutgers’ preseason FPI in 2016 was 1.3. Does ESPN really have the same amount of faith in Mike Riley this year as they did in Chris Ash last year?

At 58th in the country, ESPN predicts the 2017 Nebraska football team will have the same kind of results as last year’s Oregon Ducks.

They finished 61st and got rid of Mark Helfrich after a disappointing 4-8 campaign.

Last year, Purdue was projected to win 5.7 games by the same system. In case you need a refresher, they finished with only three W’s and also bid farewell to head coach Darrell Hazell.

…Foreshadowing?

Fear not, Big Red Nation. For as many examples of doom and gloom that can be drawn from these dismal forecasts, there are exceptions.

Exactly half of ESPN’s predicted win percentage over the last three years of Big Ten teams have been within .100 of reality.

However, that also means that the other half of the time, the FPI has been way off.

Sure, the 2017 Huskers could end up like the 2016 Michigan State team. A squad that underperformed to the tune of .370 under their expected win percentage.

It also means that they could blow this disheartening prophecy out of the water just like last year’s Wisconsin Badgers.

Paul Chryst’s boys were pegged to finish with 6.8 wins.

After the dust of the Cotton Bowl had settled, their 11 wins and No. 12 overall FPI ranking were more than enough to prove ESPN’s fortunetelling index dead wrong.

In 2015, Iowa finished with 12 wins and made an appearance in the Rose Bowl after the FPI said they’d barely make a bowl game with 6.6 wins.

Last year, Penn State won 11 games and made their first Rose Bowl appearance in eight years after being projected to win 7.6 times.

Perhaps the best example to look to, dear faithful Cornheads, is the 2016 Colorado Buffaloes.

Projected to suffer yet another brutal season in Boulder at 5-7, Mike MacIntyre’s Buffs doubled their FPI-scheduled win total and earned a trip to the Pac-12 Championship.

The FPI tries to be as accurate as possible when it comes to the metrics it uses to create the rankings system.

For the most part, it does a pretty dang good job creating fair expectations across the country.

But sometimes, teams aren’t meant to meet expectations.

Some Nebraska football teams in the past have been projected to do great things but fall short in the end.

Next: What the Huskers’ Defensive Young Guns Are Showing

You could almost describe entire Nebraska coaching tenures as a failure to meet expectations.

Wouldn’t it be fitting if, after the first time in years, the Huskers have been pegged to be mediocre, they refuse to meet those expectations?

Home/Nebraska Football