The Nebraska football team is set to battle No. 25 Illinois this Friday. Matt Rhule's squad looks to move to 4-0 for the first time since (say it with me)...2016.
Illinois head coach Bret Bielema always prepares his teams well--and they play incredibly hard. What do the Huskers have to do to beat them? Here are the three things NU need to do if to come away with a victory.
Nebraska football wins if they run the ball when they want to
The strength of Illinois' defense is their secondary. Conventional wisdom would tell you this is the game where Nebraska will run the ball 40-45 times.
But I don't think Marcus Satterfield lives by conventional wisdom, and the Nebraska football team has only had 36+ rushing attempts in one game so far (47 against UTEP). Satterfield wants to air it out. Not like an Air Raid attack, of course. On the season Nebraska has 104 rushing attempts to 92 passing attempts. Getting up big on opponents early helps that. History tells us Satt wants to be closer to 50-50.
Nebraska doesn't need to run it 40 times against Illinois, and I don't think they will. I think Satterfield will test the Illinois secondary--and freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola's mettle. Pushing the ball down the field is what separates great Big Ten teams from average ones.
That said, running the ball when it matters will be the key to winning for the Huskers. Can they run the ball on first down? Can they run when it's third down? Can they run the ball in the red zone and power it into the end zone when they're on the five yard line? Can they run it in the fourth quarter to ice the game? If they can, they will win.
Nebraska football will beat Illinois if they take care of the ball
Shocker, right? Turnovers matter, especially in conference play. Especially in Big Ten play. Nebraska has been even or positive in turnover margin in its first three games. The Huskers are +3 this year in turnover margin, a welcome change from the recent past. Illinois is an amazing +8.
Turnovers translate to efficiency for a football team. Holding onto the ball and taking away the ball shortens the field for your offense. This key to winning will never change for Nebraska--or any other team for that matter.
One of the best efficiency metrics to track is yards per point. Nebraska is 29th in the country at 12.4 yards per point. Why is that important? This stat shows how far a team needs to go to score. For every touchdown (including an extra point), Nebraska has had to move the ball just 86.8 yards. Illinois has actually been better than Nebraska, at 12.3 yards per point.
Defensively, Nebraska and Illinois are both in the top 15 in yards per point allowed. The Blackshirts force their opponents to move the ball an average of 192 yards to score a touchdown! Illinois' defense is at an average of 172 yards per touchdown.
What does this all mean? Nebraska and Illinois have been incredibly efficient so far in 2024. Something's gotta give, right? We'll find out on Friday.
Nebraska will win if it can steal yards on special teams
Let's keep with the efficiency theme. The more I've watched Big Ten football over the last decade-plus, I realize how important it is to "steal" yards in this league. Turnovers are part of that. So are special teams.
Nebraska has given up two long kickoff returns against Colorado and UNI. They can't afford to do that against a team like Illinois. We know the Blackshirts will show up and I sincerely doubt Illinois' ability to manufacture multiple scoring drives over 65 yards. But they won't have to drive far to score with a kickoff return to the Husker 38-yard line.
Then there's the punting. Oh, the punting! The Big Ten is the premier punting conference in America. It's time for Brian Buschini to enter the chat. It's never too late in a career for a breakout game. This is that game for him. I don't see the Huskers punting as much as say, Iowa, in a game like this (sorry, Hawkeye fans, I couldn't resist). But when the Huskers do, Buschini needs to 1) flip the field or 2) pin the Illini deep in their own territory. No shanks. No long returns given up.
Finally, can Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda spring a return or two? He doesn't need to break one. Picking up just 10-15 per return will allow Satterfield and Raiola to get creative and work their magic with the bevy of playmakers the Husker offense has.
Can Nebraska football beat Illinois on Friday?
Run the ball. Hold onto the ball. Steal yards. If Nebraska football does these three things, they easily beat Illinois. My prediction? They will get it done, and then some.
Nebraska 31, Illinois 10.