Patience is a virtue for Nebraska football with true freshmen quarterbacks
By Eric Hess
Indiana’s dominant win against Nebraska football last week, rightfully, left many people upset, myself included. Indiana clearly outmatched NU, but the Huskers also did plenty to help the Hoosiers turn a big win into an absolute blowout. I’ve read many replies on Twitter comparing Matt Rhule and Curt Cignetti and their team-building approach. I still believe in the approach Rhule is taking. Matt Rhule is rebuilding the program around a young core, and with that will come challenges.
I looked at five-star quarterbacks' history and career performance when Raiola committed. A trend that should worry Nebraska fans is the propensity for these five-star quarterbacks to transfer, with over half of the highly rated recruits playing for multiple programs in their careers. Expanding the picture to look at any true freshman starting quarterback reveals that Raiola and the Huskers align with historic expectations.
In the playoff era, 452 quarterbacks have thrown passes in their true freshman seasons. Josh Rosen set the high-water mark for passing yards with 3670 for UCLA in 2015. Former Nebraska football quarterback Adrian Martinez has the 16th most passing yards by a true freshman with 2617.
Despite playing just seven games so far in 2024, Dylan Raiola already ranks 49th in passing yards by a true freshman. His nine touchdowns are tied for 55th among true freshman quarterbacks. He also leads all 2024 true freshmen in passing yards and passing touchdowns.
Nebraska football has to be patient with freshmen quarterbacks
Trevor Lawrence and Clemson set the gold standard for performance by a true freshman quarterback by going 15-0 with him as the team’s top passer in 2018. Jalen Hurts and Alabama were another instant success story in 2016. But these elite seasons are more of the exception than the rule for true freshman quarterbacks.
To understand team performance, we can use actual and “expected wins” for teams with freshman quarterbacks. There have been 83 teams with a true freshman throwing at least 150 passes. On average, these teams' actual win totals and expected win totals fall outside of bowl eligibility at 5.53 and 5.67, respectively. It's not surprising that actual wins tend to be lower than expected wins since expected wins ignore some of the randomness of football, which is likely increased by an inexperienced passer.
Nebraska’s 5.3 expected wins this season rank it 43rd among the 83 teams. Adrian Martinez's 2018 team finished with 6.8 expected wins against only four actual wins, the most wins below expectation in the playoff era. The 2024 Husker’s five wins rank it in a tie with eight other teams for the 41st most wins.
The two true freshmen whose teams won the most games over expectation. The top picks of the 2024 NFL Draft. Jayden Daniels won eight games versus an expected win total of just 5.1, while Caleb Williams (with some help from Spencer Rattler) led Oklahoma to 11 wins versus 8.4 expected wins in 2021.
The Nebraska football offense jumped from one of the worst in college football in 2023 to a below-average offense in 2024. Given the youth, I hoped the offense could continue to move forward in 2024 and approach the average range. The Indiana game lowered my expectations of seeing much more improvement this season. While Dylan Raiola is a generation talent, history hasn’t favored true freshman quarterbacks.