Nebraska, Fred Hoiberg can’t panic over loss to Brad Underwood’s bold bet

Illinois handed Nebraska its second-straight loss with a daring defensive gameplan, but it won't be easy for the rest of the Big Ten to replicate.
Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood
Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

For a program with eight NCAA Tournament appearances all-time, a 20-2 start is a dream. But when it came with 20 straight wins and back-to-back losses to top-10 teams, there could be a sense of panic creeping in among Nebraska fans who had visions of a run to the program’s first-ever Final Four. 

There could even be doubt creeping in for Fred Hoiberg and his team, but a 78-69 loss to No. 9 Illinois at the Pinnacle Bank Arena on Sunday shouldn’t set off alarms in Lincoln. Illinois head coach Brad Underwood made a bet, and it paid off, but his recipe for downing the Huskers won’t be easy to replicate. 

“No, we’re giving up more,” Underwood explained of his defensive approach to the three-point line, “because we’re trying not to give up as many twos and as many layups.” 

It’s a philosophy that runs counter to modern analytics, but Underwood isn’t a caveman. His team plays a very analytically driven style on the offensive floor, and there’s a method to his madness, as he detailed postgame. 

“Those are 100 percent shots, and a really good three-point shooter is going to shoot 35 to 36 percent. You get one that’s unique, like Pryce (Sandfort), and he’s going to make 40. So, we just didn’t give up the layups.” 

Illinois’s recipe to beat Nebraska won’t be easy for the rest of the Big Ten to replicate

That’s exactly what happened. Illinois allowed Nebraska to shoot 15-35 (43 percent) from beyond the arc, knocking down six more three-pointers than the Illini. Yet, Illinois responded with 28 points in the paint to Nebraska’s 18. While the Illini shot 80 percent at the rim on 15 attempts (per CBBanalytics.com), Nebraska went 6-for-12. 

It may seem like simple math, but the hard part is preventing those shots at the rim from going in. For the season, Nebraska is shooting 68 percent at the rim (88th percentile nationally), 47.6 percent in the paint (87th percentile), and 59.6 percent on two-point field goals overall (96th percentile). 

Nebraska is also only allowing just over 20 percent of opponents' shots to come at the rim (99th percentile defensively), and opponents are shooting 66.7 percent on those shots and 37.3 percent from the paint. 

The Huskers are a strong defensive rebounding team with depth in the front court to deter teams from attacking the rim. Illinois is the exception, an extreme outlier. 

All but one of the Illini’s regular rotation players (Andrej Stojakovic) shoot over 30 percent from three. That includes 6-foot-9 David Mirkovic, 7-foot-1 Tomislav Ivisic, his 7-foot-2 twin brother Zvonimir Ivisic, and 6-foot-9 Ben Humrichous. 

That combination of shooting and length is rare and allows Illinois to keep spacing while dominating on the boards and maintaining elite rim protection on the other end. It also allowed Underwood to make a bold bet, playing zone, packing the paint, and daring Nebraska to bury him from deep. The Huskers couldn’t on Saturday, but if other Big Ten teams try to replicate that gameplan, Hoiberg will get his team back into the win column.

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