While the Nebraska offense has hit a few speed bumps over the last couple of weeks, Dana Holgorsen believes that’s just the norm in the Big Ten. On the adjustments he wants his offense to make, the veteran OC said it’s more about winning a race than scoring a bucket of points.
During his Tuesday press conference, Holgorsen told the assembled media that the “race to 21” in the Big Ten indicates who will win the game. It’s unclear how much research he’s done on that subject, but it was an extremely accurate statement.
Nebraska is far more successful in Big Ten games when they reach 21 points first. The Huskers also struggle big time when their opponent scores 21 points first. Under head coach Matt Rhule, NU is 3-17 in Big Ten games when scoring fewer than 21 points. That includes losses to Oregon and Indiana, plus Iowa, Penn State, USC, and Minnesota last season. Even in games where they eventually reach 20, they are 2-13 when their opponent wins the race.
According to Eric Hess (also known as Arbitrary Analytics on Twitter), Nebraska is also one of the best teams in the Big Ten when they reach 21 before their opponents. Since 2023, the Huskers are 17-1. At a 94.4% winning percentage, NU is seventh in the conference.
Dana Holgorsen called Big Ten football a "race to 21". Since 2023, a Big Ten team that hits 21 first has won 91.6% of its games. The Huskers win often when they get to 21 first, but they've also played the second-most low-scoring games in the league over that time period pic.twitter.com/5OHn49C5Wq
— Arbitrary Analytics (@arbitanalytics) October 28, 2026
Dana Holgorsen says Nebraska football must win Big Ten’s race to 21 points
Only Michigan (31-0), Northwestern (17-0), UCLA (17-0), Oregon (36-1), Washington (27-1), and Ohio State (38-2) have better winning percentages when they win the race to 21 points in a game.
Unsurprisingly, Michigan, Oregon, Washington, and Ohio State have had very good offenses for most of the period between 2023 and mid-season 2026. The fact that Nebraska, Northwestern, and UCLA are all at the top of the rankings shows that even a “boom or bust” team can be dominant when it finds the end zone three times before whoever it's playing.
Of course, even those juggernaut teams are downright terrible when they allow the other team to hit 21 first. Michigan is 1-8, Northwestern is 4-17, UCLA is winless in 17 games, and Ohio State is 0-2. You read that right: since 2023, the Buckeyes have only allowed two Big Ten opponents to reach 21 points first. Those losses were a 30-24 loss to Michigan in 2023 and a 32-31 loss to Oregon in 2024.
For Nebraska, the key to a successful second half of the season is getting to 21 points, and worrying about the rest later. The Huskers are second in the Big Ten in games where neither team reaches 21. At 5-7, they’re respectable, ranked just behind Iowa, which is a rather insane 10-7 in games where points are at an extreme premium.
Interestingly enough, Nebraska has bucked its own trend a bit this season. In their 48-23 win over Maryland, the Terps once led 23-14. Maybe that’s a sign that the Huskers can reverse their luck in this strange area once again.
On the other hand, they entered 2026 at .500 when neither Big Ten opponent reached 21. They’re 0-2 this fall.
So what about Nebraska’s opponent this weekend? It’s one loss since they first reached 21 this year. They led 21-10 against USC before collapsing to lose 25-21. Perhaps an even bigger tell is that when Washington loses the race, they lose it pretty big. They went down 21-7 to Minnesota before losing 27-24. Against Iowa, they were down 27-0 before losing 41-24.
That’s also a cautionary tale that Nebraska has hopefully learned from the Indiana and Oregon games. Even when the Huskies struggle out of the gate, they eventually find a way to score. NU will need to win the race to 21 and then keep piling on points, something they haven’t done in several weeks.
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