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Nebraska’s late-down stop rate gives the Blackshirts a real Oregon upset weapon

Oregon has struggled to stay on the field. Nebraska has become one of the best at forcing it off.
ByOliver Vandervoort
IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Blackshirts have long been synonymous with the Nebraska football program. Sure, Husker fans love to see an offense that can’t be stopped. They love to watch an option attack no one can stop, but the fanbase really takes pride in the defense. The lack of defense has led to more than a few firings since famed coordinator and Blackshirts originator Charlie McBride retired.

Poor run defense was a big reason John Butler was fired after just one season as the DC, and Rob Aurich was brought in to fix the biggest problem for the Huskers this year; so far, with a few hiccups, he’s made serious progress. Against Indiana, the Blackshirts shut down a Hoosiers’ running game that is one of the best in the country.

Aurich's biggest impact has been on Nebraska's 3rd-and-4th-down defense. The Huskers are among the best, and it’s safe to say that could be a big factor in their attempt to beat the Oregon Ducks late Saturday night.

According to The Fourth Quarter, Nebraska ranks second in the country in forcing a stop on 3rd or 4th down, with a 74.1% stop rate. NU ranks behind only Boise State (ironically enough, under former Nebraska defensive coordinator Erik Chinander), which has a 75.7% stop rate.

Blackshirts’ elite money-down defense gives Nebraska football major edge against Oregon

Even though Nebraska eventually lost to the Hoosiers, Aurich’s defense kept the Huskers in the game by bowing up on 3rd down, especially. The Hoosiers were 1-for-1 on 4th down. That conversion was a wide-open 44-yard touchdown pass that gave them the 20-17 lead they eventually won by.

However, Nebraska’s success stopping 3rd-and-4th down may be why head coach Curt Cignetti changed his mind several times about going for it last Saturday. Aurich’s Blackshirts got so in Cignetti’s head that every time he went for it early in the game, he called a timeout and kicked instead. IU was just 1-for-10 on 3rd down.

The weekend before that, the Huskers held Maryland to 1-for-14 on 3rd down and 1-for-2 on 4th down. After Nebraska fell behind 23-14, the Terps’ 3rd-down conversions are likely why NU went on a 24-0 run after they started behind the 8-ball.

Of all Nebraska’s opponents, only Ohio (6-for-15) and Michigan State (3-for-8) converted more than two 3rd- or 4th-down attempts.

Can Nebraska’s ability to stop its opponents on 3rd and 4th down be the secret weapon against Oregon? The Ducks haven't been particularly good at converting those downs. Not counting their 11-for-14 against Portland State, the Ducks are just 18-of-60 (30%). In other words, Oregon is only slightly better in those situations this season than Nebraska’s other opponents.

The biggest reason the Huskers lost to Indiana, despite a mostly successful defensive outing, was an offense that sputtered in the second half, managing just 7 points, against a very good Hoosiers defense. If Nebraska’s offense can move the ball better against an Oregon defense that has shown some holes, the Blackshirts' ability to stuff opposing offenses could be the x-factor on Saturday.

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