I had two articles prepared in my head before the Nebraska Cornhuskers basketball game against Iowa on Tuesday night. Unfortunately, I have to write this one after they blew a 15-point lead and lost to the Hawkeyes in overtime.
Make no mistake: this was a bad loss. But not because of the loss itself. I don't think this will kill their resume. It was bad from a psychological perspective. Anytime you're up by double digits in the second half on the road, you HAVE to close it out.
Husker fans know all too well that learning to win--living with success--is the hardest thing to do in sports.
For what it's worth, I didn't have Nebraska winning this game before the season began (but I didn't expect them to lose this way). So, all hope is not lost. There are several road win opportunities left out there for Nebraska.
What do they have to do to make sure their name is called on Selection Sunday in March? Let's get into it.
What determines if the Nebraska Cornhuskers are in or out of March Madness?
First things, first: on what will the NCAA tournament selection committee base their judgment of Nebraska basketball?
At first glance, it seems you need to have a degree in advanced computer science to figure out the selection committee's methodology. I hope to write about this more later in the season. For now, you know of the major data resources available to the committee:
- NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool)
- Predictive and results-based metrics, including KenPom, T-Rank, and BPI
- Strength of Record (SOR) & KPI rankings
- Head to head and common opponents
- Road and neutral court wins
As of this writing, Nebraska is #36 in the NET (down three spots after the Iowa loss), #34 in KenPom, and #45 in T-Rank (Bart Torvik). In other words, today the Huskers are safely in the field of 68, hovering around the 8/9 seed line (depending on which bracketologist you read).
What can Nebraska basketball do to improve their seeding
It's entirely possible that Nebraska folds down the stretch (ala Wisconsin last year) and altogether drops out of the field. I don't see that happening, of course--this team is too good--but it at least needs to be acknowledged.
So for the sake of argument, let's assume Nebraska goes dancing. What do they need to do to improve their seeding? Specifically, how can they move off that dreaded 8/9 line to 6/7? Getting to a 6/7 gives them a much more favorable first-round matchup and, should they win their first ever tournament game, would mean they avoid the 1-seed in the second round.
I'll break down Nebraska's remaining games by categorizing each in one of four ways:
- Must-Win: Games against opponents also vying for an at-large spot in the tournament, typically conference home games.
- Can't-Lose: Games against weaker opponents not on the bubble, and would be considered a "bad" loss, home or away.
- Nice-to-Win: Wins that would greatly help but aren't critical--typically conference road games against bubble or tournament-bound teams.
- Resume Booster (Statement Win): High-profile wins against teams in the 1-5 seed range that would move Nebraska up to the next seed threshold.
Can't-Lose
These four games are all against teams that are currently 90th or lower in the NET. Home or away, Nebraska must go 4-0 here. No excuses.
- Rutgers (home, Jan 17)
- USC (home, January 22)
- Washington (away, Feb 5)
- Minnesota (home, March 1)
Must-Win
Protecting home court at all costs is imperative for any college basketball team, but especially for a team like Nebraska that struggles on the road. These four teams are all in a similar tier with Nebraska and if the Huskers want an at-large bid and a decent seed, they need to go 4-0 in these games.
- Iowa (home, March 9)
- Ohio State (home, February 9
- Maryland (home, Feb 13)
- Michigan (home, Feb 24)
Nice-to-Win
Here's where things start to get dicey. These three road games are toss-ups in my mind. While I don't expect Nebraska to go 3-0, these are three very "gettable" games. If Nebraska will steal a few on the road, these are the teams to do it against. Northwestern (NET 53) and Penn State (NET 47) are the two I think Nebraska has the best shot in.
- Northwestern (away, Feb 16)
- Penn State (away, Feb 19)
- Ohio State (away, March 4)
Resume Booster (Statement Win)
If Nebraska basketball wants to send shockwaves through the Big Ten and get to a 6/7 seed or better on Selection Sunday, these are five games to keep an eye on. I expect Nebraska to be competitive in all five, but I don't see them winning these games.
They're all on the road--except for Illinois, where Nebraska will have more than a chance because of the environment at PBA. (But beware that Illinois is really good. Good enough for a 2/3 seed again this year.)
Can Nebraska win just one of these games?
- Purdue (away, Jan 12)
- Maryland (away, Jan 19)
- Wisconsin (away, Jan 26)
- Illinois (home, Jan 30)
- Oregon (away, Feb 2)
Where will Nebraska basketball's record be at the end of the season?
Nebraska sits at 12-3 and, as you can tell from how I broke down their remaining games, I would expect them to lose 8 more games (all of the "Nice-to-Win" and "Resume Booster" games). That puts them at 20-11.
This year, I think that will be good enough to get an 8/9 seed in the tournament, but would feel much more comfortable if they win one they shouldn't and finish 21-10. That is what makes the loss in Iowa City all the more frustrating.