Why the Air Raid is alright and OC Dana Holgorsen is a great move for Nebraska

As Matt Rhule walked up to the podium for his weekly press conference, my keys to victory article was scheduled to go live in about 30 minutes. Boy, was that bad timing.

Matt Rhule nonchalantly talked about Dylan Raiola's injury that has kept him out of practice. Then, Rhule dropped a bomb: "Oh, by the way, new offensive consultant Dana Holgorsen is going to call plays."

Wait, what? My article was immediately irrelevant and obsolete.

As this season has progressed, every fan worth their salt recognized something needed to change for Nebraska's offense to improve. It was painfully obvious. Even Matt Rhule knew. Just a week ago, he said, "There's nothing I won't do to get us over the top."

Did you believe him? I wasn't sure if i did.

My gosh, the man wasn't bluffing.

In an unprecedented move, Rhule demoted a sitting offensive coordinator to give play-calling duties to someone who wasn't even on staff! What's more, to someone who wasn't even currently working on any team's offensive staff. (Holgorsen had been working as a defensive consultant with TCU.)

Call it bold. Call it desperate. Call it whatever you want. I call it leadership.

This showed me Matt Rhule is a man of action. It says something about his leadership of the Nebraska football team. No more platitudes. No more wishful thinking. No more "we'll evaluate after the season."

It's not just that there's "no time" for waiting anymore in college football, with NIL and the transfer portal. It's that when you know something is broken--indeed, has never been right--the answer cannot come from the inside. It has to come from the outside.

It an industry rife with arrogance and self-aggrandizement, it was so refreshing to hear Rhule say, "I tried to fix it. I hadn't been able to fix it, so I called someone I that knew could fix it."

But can Dana Holgorsen fix Nebraska football's offensive woes?

Rhule said that his goal was for Holgorsen to be the offensive coordinator past this year and for 2025. But he was clear that this move "wasn't about next year...it's about this year." Rhule grasps how vital it is for this program to get to a bowl game.

It's hard to know if this will work now...or ever. No coach is guaranteed success. Everyone is a risk. But what if Nebraska's offense flops in these last three games? The truth is that we shouldn't judge Holgorsen based on that sample size. He just met these players and staff last week. That would be unfair to him.

But what about beyond this season? For my money's worth, I love the hire. You probably have an opinion, and you've likely heard people say Holgorsen's offense "can't work in the Big Ten." Yet, even Holgorsen detractors will say he's a major upgrade from Marcus Satterfield

We shouldn't have unreasonable expectations. Rhule sneakily told us the expectations: "Can we get 13 more points. A couple more third downs." Nebraska fell short by 4 points to Ohio State and 7 to UCLA. How can they make one more play? Scheme one more touchdown? Pick up a critical first down? Can Holgorsen help? We'll find out soon enough.

I plan to write a lot about Holgorsen through the offseason (assuming he maintains his role). For now, let's talk about the two primary arguments against him being the best option at OC for Nebraska football.

Objection #1: 'Nebraska football doesn't need another pass-happy offense. We've tried that before.'

As others have pointed out, Air Raid is not a playbook, but a process or philosophical concept. Just because you run "Air Raid" doesn't mean you throw the ball 50-60 times.

I charted the pass-run ratio for every one of Holgorsen's seasons as a head coach or OC. Holgorsen has run the ball 45% of the time! Take out his years as OC at Texas Tech (which was extremely pass heavy), and he's run the ball 49% of the time. pass-heavy

Look at how run-heavy his offenses were after he became a head coach:

My gut says that's the ratio you're going to see starting next year at Nebraska. But it's not just ratio we're talking about. It's results.

• At Oklahoma State in 2010, Holgorsen's offense produced a 4,000 yard passer and a 1,500-yard rusher. You'd take that, right?
• From 2011-2018, WVU had four 1,000-yard rushers and never had a running back rush for less than 742 yards in a season. It's been a while since Nebraska did that.
• For nine of his 17 years as a head coach or offensive coordinator, Holgorsen’s offenses ranked in the top 20 nationally in scoring.

Much more to come on this as I dig into Holgorsen's history and the Air Raid run concepts.

Objection #2: 'Nebraska football can't run the Air Raid in the Big Ten and win.'

Do you know what teams run a spread offense with Air Raid concepts in the Big Ten?

Ohio State. Washington. Maryland. Oregon. Indiana. USC. Wisconsin. Purdue. And a handful of other teams use Air Raid concepts even with their pro-style or run-heavy systems. Anyone who uses mesh crossing routes has stolen from Air Raid.

Wouldn't you want an offense like Ohio State, USC, or Oregon?

When fans hear "Air Raid" they immediately think of Mike Leach who seemed to throw the ball a hundred times a game wherever he was. Yes, he loved to throw. But the reality is that in college football, especially the Big Ten, offenses are diverse. There's no "purebred" offense anymore. OCs borrow from multiple systems and integrate concepts within their identity. Doing that is what separates a great OC from the good ones.

If Holgorsen can do that with the Nebraska football program to scheme mismatches that give defenses nightmares, sign me up.

As Rhule said in his presser, "I want to score points." Forget next year for now. Dana Holgorsen gives Nebraska a puncher's chance to do that in these last three games.