Let’s start here. In a 20-1 start to the season, the most impressive performance from Fred Hoiberg’s No. 5 Nebraska Cornhuskers is arguably the “1.” It came on Tuesday night, 75-72 in Ann Arbor after Nebraska led nearly the entire way without key contributors Rienk Mast, who was out with the flu, and Braden Frager, who is recovering from an ankle injury, and actually boosted the Huskers’ Final Four betting odds.
After hanging with No. 3 Michigan, it seems that everyone is finally ready to believe that a program with eight all-time NCAA Tournament appearances is a legit national contender. How could it not? Nebraska controlled the game on the road against one of the national title favorites and only relinquishing the lead as its diminished seven-man rotation ran out of gas and finished on a three-plus-minute scoring drought.
Yet, the performance revealed a potential weakness that could doom the Huskers in their next biggest game of the season, hosting No. 9 Illinois in Lincoln on Sunday.
Nebraska needs Rienk Mast and Braden Frager back vs. Illinois
Nebraska’s outside shooting and perimeter-centric game were a tough matchup for Michigan’s physicality. That was clear going in and played out, especially when Nebraska shot well over 50 percent from the field in the first half. However, Michigan eventually wore down Nebraska’s undermanned front court, pulled down nine offensive rebounds, and scored 14 second-chance points.
Those 14 points were the second-most Nebraska has allowed all year, as were the 38 points in the paint the Huskers surrendered. The only team to score more second-chance points against Nebraska this year was Illinois, back in Nebraska’s 83-80 win on December 13.
Nebraska's rebounding woes could rear their ugly head again on Sunday
Like Michigan, which is 98th percentile in second-chance points per game (per CBBanalytics.com), 99th percentile in points in the paint per game, and 87th percentile in offensive rebound percentage, Illinois dominates the interior. The Illini falter slightly in paint points at the 57th percentile, but check in the 99th percentile for both offensive rebound percentage and second chance points.
Brad Underwood has built a team that hunts extra possessions, and that’s a tough matchup for Nebraska. Though the Huskers’ 73.1 defensive rebound percentage is 90th percentile, teams like Illinois and Michigan have given them trouble on the glass.
Now, presumably, Mast will be back, and Frager will have a better chance to return from his injury. Adding 6-foot-10 and 6-foot-7 forwards to the front court would greatly improve Nebraska’s chances of holding up in the rematch with the Illini. But even with both back in December, Illinois controlled the game. Had Nebraska not shot 46.2 percent from three in that one, it would have gone the other way.
The three-point shot has been Nebraska’s great equalizer this season. But if Illinois hands Fred Hoiberg’s team its second loss of the year, and does so in a similar fashion to Michigan with a clear physicality edge, then the Huskers will have a noticeable red flag hanging over their Final Four contention as the home stretch of the regular season gets underway.