Nebraska football’s Football Power Index rating paints dire picture

If you thought the Nebraska football team was in trouble after a 0-2 start, then you probably don’t want to look at the latest FPI ratings.

The Scott Frost era of Nebraska football is not getting off to the kind of start anyone expected. Even those who thought the team would struggle weren’t predicting a 0-2 start to the season.

Granted, most people also thought the Huskers would have played three games by now. Losing the Akron opener has become bigger than I certainly thought it would be as it appears we’re close to seeing a season on the brink.

The problem, as it has been all offseason and season, is that the Cornhuskers have a very tough schedule. With the non-conference slate over (maybe?) the schedule only gets tougher.

Nebraska Cornhuskers

A look at ESPN’s latest FPI ratings shows just how much tougher. I’d say I’ll give you the good news first, but there really isn’t any.

Nebraska’s FPI (Football Power Index) currently sits at -1.3 which is good for 72nd in the country. With a remaining strength of schedule rank currently sitting at 8th in the nation, it should come as no surprise (but also a bit of a shock) that the Huskers are currently expected to go 2-8 the rest of the way.

Yes, you read that correctly, the FPI has the Huskers finishing the first year of the Scott Frost era 2-10. That would be the lowest win total for the school since a 1-9 campaign in 1957.

It would obviously be the worst record ever posted since moving to 11 game and then 12 game regular season schedules. So how are we in this position?

It does help that the Huskers are currently ranked 103rd in the country in offensive efficiency. They’re ranked a slightly better 83rd in defensive efficiency.  They are an astoundingly bad, but not surprising given the circumstances 121st in special teams efficiency.

All of that adds up to a team that is ranked 111th in the country in total efficiency. Those numbers are especially hard to swallow when you look at where the Huskers finished a season ago.

Despite some truly woeful performances, Nebraska football’s offense ended 2017 with the 59th best offensive efficiency in the country. The defense was another story as it was quite a bit worse than this year coming in ranked 102nd.

Special teams is where the big difference between this year and even a horrendous 2017 lies. For all of Mike Riley and company’s failings, they managed to put together a special teams unit that ranked 14th in the country.

The news gets worse when you look at a game by game breakdown for the Nebraska football team as to how they are projected fair. The Huskers have just a 5.5 percent chance of beating Michigan. In fact they are favored in just two games, against Purdue (51.6 percent) and Illinois (67.4 percent).

Talking about bad losses, the Huskers currently have just a 28.8 percent chance of beating Northwestern. That’s a wildcats team that just lost to the Akron team everyone was counting as a sure victory for the Cornhuskers before the season.

The FPI ratings have just one loss rated as having any real shot of turning into a victory. That’s against a Minnesota team where Nebraska football has a 37.9 percent chance of winning.

It feels like these numbers are way off. It feels like these projections should be ignored as ridiculous. It’s easier to ignore them if the Huskers find a way to get a win under their belts on Saturday.