Handicapping the BCS National Championship Race

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The Nebraska Cornhuskers kept their slim BCS National Championship hopes alive with a 31-30 victory over Iowa State this past Saturday. Lets break down who is front of them in the race for the prize, what it will take for each team to make it to the BCS Championship Game, and who will ultimately be playing for all the tater tots.

The Win-and-You’re-In’s: Simple for these teams. Win your remaining games and you’ll find yourself in the National Championship. Lose? And, well, we’ll get to that.

1. Oregon (9-0)
Remaining Games: @Cal, Arizona, @Oregon State
Chances of a Loss: Higher than most people think (could lose any of the three)
Case For: Going undefeated in an upper-echelon BCS conference.
Case Against: Nothing.
Analysis: Beat a 1-loss Stanford team, which creates debate between the two if Oregon were to lose a game. However, the Ducks’ case is simple: Win out and they’re in, lose one and they’re out. Not enough substance if they drop a game.
Odds of Making BCS Championship Game: 62%

2. Auburn (10-0)
Remaining Games: Georgia, @Alabama, SEC Championship Game
Chances of a Loss: High (I favor Alabama 75-25)
Case For: Going undefeated in the conference that has won the past 4 National Championships.
Case Against: Cam Newton is a cheater (and probably belongs at USC).
Analysis: The question is if they have a shot if they lose a game. The Tigers will be in the SEC Championship with a win over Georgia on Saturday, which could create an interesting debate between LSU (who wouldn’t be in the SEC Championship Game) and Auburn. Each would have one loss (LSU to Auburn, Auburn to Alabama or SEC Championship Game). No way you can invite LSU over Auburn right? Not so fast my friend. Auburn’s loss occurred later in the season, and human voters LOVE to drop teams a predetermined number of spots following a loss, and I believe LSU would leapfrog them despite losing to them. Don’t blame the BCS, blame the voters.
Odds of Making BCS Championship Game: 25%

The Mid-Majors: TCU has a stranglehold of this group. I don’t think there’s any way Boise St can move ahead of the Horned Frogs without TCU losing. All about numbers with these two teams who will most likely win out.

(More…………)

3. TCU (10-0)
Remaining Games: San Diego St, @New Mexico
Chances of a Loss: Slim (watch our for them Aztecs though)
Case For: Have destroyed everybody on their schedule including an impressive a beatdown of Baylor (45-10), a stomping of Utah on the road (47-7), and outlasting an Oregon State (30-21- closest game of their year) team who has seemingly played or will play every 2010 contender.
Case Against: Don’t face the rigors of a BCS conference schedule.
Analysis: Despite the prior statement being accurate, they’re schedule has proved far superior to that of Boise State’s. They have surpassed Boise St. in both human polls and will most likely stay ahead. They should remain atop the barrage of 1-loss teams after blowing out all challengers, and are an Oregon/Auburn loss away from playing for the big boys’ prize.
Odds of Making BCS Championship Game: 70%

4. Boise St. (8-0)
Remaining Games: @Idaho, Fresno State, @Nevada, Utah State
Chances of a Loss: Existent (highest chance to finish undefeated)
Case For: Have destroyed everybody on their schedule since edging Virginia Tech in the season opener. Beat TCU in a BCS bowl game last year.
Case Against: Conference is simply too weak to be considered for the BCS Championship Game.
Analysis: Unable to pass TCU or the top two in the BCS standings, Boise St. needs a lot of help. A spot might not be attainable with such weak computer numbers from the WAC conference. I think they would be passed by a 1-loss team if it were to come to that.
Odds of Making BCS Championship Game: 8%

The 1-Loss-Hopefuls: This is where it gets tricky. Teams that play the big games have a chance to move up in the human polls, and teams that play bad teams will move down in the computer rankings, but obviously have a much higher chance of winning their games. In other words, the current standings of these seven teams will fluctuate every week, even if they all win out. Very difficult to project. Isn’t the BCS fun?

5. LSU (8-1)
Remaining Games: Louisiana-Monroe, Mississippi, @Arkansas, SEC Championship Game
Chances of a Loss: 50-50 (probably won’t make the SEC Champ Game)
Case For: Only one loss in what is perceived as the best conference in College Football, and that loss was by only seven points to the #2 team (Auburn) in the country.
Case Against: Don’t really pass the eye test. Still not sure how they’ve only lost one game after escaping game against Tennessee on a too-many-men-on-the-field penalty. Most likely will not play in the SEC Championship Game so how could they play for the BCS Championship? (a question best answered by Husker fans).
Analysis: Computer numbers are sure to drop after playing Louisiana-Monroe and Ole Miss in back-to-back weeks. Might not remain the top ranked 1-loss team after those games. Plus have to escape Arkansas with a win (not an easy task).
Odds of Making BCS Championship Game: 12%

6. Stanford (8-1)
Remaining Games: @Arizona State, @Cal, Oregon State
Chances of a Loss: Low (should be double digit favorites in all three)
Case For: Only loss was to the #1 team in the country (Oregon), a game which they held a 21-3 advantage at one point.
Case Against: Have only defeated one ranked team all year (Arizona). Don’t play another ranked team the rest of the season.
Analysis: Numbers won’t rise much, but shouldn’t fall too much either given remaining schedule. Will probably win out, but will they top the other 1-loss teams is the question. Won’t be able to catch LSU, but could stay above the others.
Odds of Making BCS Championship Game: 12%

7. Wisconsin (8-1)
Remaining Games: Indiana, @Michigan, Northwestern
Chances of a Loss: Sparse (Michigan strug-a-ling)
Case For: May very well own the most impressive win of any team in the country, going on the road to Iowa and winning a week after defeating Ohio St.
Case Against: Lost to Michigan State, who finds itself at the bottom of this list despite sharing the same number of losses as the Badgers.
Analysis: Weak remaining schedule drops the Badgers chances from slim to none. Will need the undefeateds to lose as well as a majority of the 1-loss teams.
Odds of Making BCS Championship Game: 2%

8. Nebraska (8-1)
Remaining Games: Kansas, @Texas A&M, Colorado, Big 12 Championship Game
Chances of a Loss: 50-50 (A&M playing better plus either OU/OSU in title game)
Case For: Also have a case for most impressive win of the season, winning at Oklahoma State. Also, Texas clearly has some sort of unfair hex on Nebraska that has yet to be confirmed.
Case Against: The worst loss of any of the 1-loss teams (Texas), which Husker fans would spin as the biggest fluke of all the teams with one loss.
Analysis: Gonna draw out the whole scene for Nebraska: Will most likely pass Wisconsin and Boise St. by winning out. Would be very difficult to pass TCU (who will probably go undefeated), so Husker Nation needs to cheer for the following teams to lose: Oregon (Oregon St), Auburn (Alabama), LSU (Arkansas), and Stanford (Cal?). Seems crazy, but Husker fans have seen crazier things happen (2001 anybody?). Stanford seems the least likely of those teams to lose, so the Huskers might need to pass them with computer numbers. Lots to watch and cheer for in the upcoming weeks.
Odds of Making BCS Championship Game: 7%

9. Ohio St. (8-1)
Remaining Games: Penn State, @Iowa, Michigan
Chances of a Loss: 50-50 (Iowa could be the best 2 loss team in the country)
Case For: These are getting more difficult. I can’t make this argument.
Case Against: Best win of the year was beating Miami at home. Got beat up in only other difficult game on the schedule (Wisconsin).
Analysis: Would need a lot of help, something like 7 of the 8 teams in front of them losing.
Odds of Making BCS Championship Game: 1%

10. Oklahoma St. (8-1)
Remaining Games: @Texas, @Kansas, Oklahoma, Big 12 Championship Game
Chances of a Loss: Prominent (KU could be a tougher game than Texas, whodathunkit?)
Case For: Could win the Big 12 with only loss which should be enough of a case to leapfrog Boise St.
Case Against: Only defeated one ranked team all year (Baylor), although that would change if they won out.
Analysis: Virtually no shot, but every win would help the Huskers’ computer numbers so cheer them on!
Odds of Making BCS Championship Game: 1%

11. Michigan St. (9-1)
Remaining Games: Purdue, @Penn State
Chances of a Loss: Won’t matter (but probably will win out)
Case For: Should be considered over Wisconsin using logical reasoning.
Case Against: Spanking suffered in Iowa is lasting memory on voters’ mind.
Analysis: Won’t happen but fit the criteria to make this list.
Odds of Making BCS Championship Game: 0%

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Final Prediction: TCU over Oregon