The first pre-season FPI has been released by ESPN and the results are not pretty when it comes to what it thinks Nebraska football is going to do in 2018.
ESPN recently released its first FPI of the 2018 season and it’s not a pretty picture for the Nebraska football team. Optimism surrounding the spring game has not erased the national perception that the Huskers are going to struggle to make a bowl in 2018.
At the moment, the sports website has our FPI sitting at 3.9, which is ranked 50th in the nation. Those same metrics have the Cornhuskers with the 28th best schedule in the country.
That’s actually a bit low compared to what some other sites have said about their schedule. Bleacher Report even gave it the honor of calling it the most difficult schedule in the country.
That FPI and the strength of schedule means that the Cornhuskers are projected to win between 5.5 and 6.5 games this year. That’s certainly in line with most other organizations have predicted.
That’s also in line with what you would expect from a team that went 4-8 last year, is replacing the entire coaching staff, getting a new quarterback and a new offensive and defensive gameplan.
Husker fans, on the other hand want to believe that the arrival of Scott Frost means that we’re going to see a turnaround the likes of which they saw at UCF. The thing most forget is that UCF was going up against a much easier group of opponents the last two years.
That easier schedule allowed for the Knights to get some momentum and some confidence and let it carry them all the way to an undefeated season last year. Fans also forget that Frost’s first season at UCF, though much better than 0-12 was not that of a juggernaut.
Read on to see how ESPN believes the Nebraska football schedule is going to break down.
The Nebraska football team’s 2018 season is an interesting one, according to ESPN because it appears they are either going to win going away, or lose by a lot. There are very few games that are right there in the middle.
Akron
To no one’s surprise, the Cornhuskers are supposed to beat the Akron Zips pretty handily. The MAC team posted a very respectable 7-7 record last year but they are still a MAC team.
The Huskers are said to have an 89.3 percent chance of winning their opener. That’s certainly good news when you take all the “new” things that the Cornhuskers are going to be breaking in during the first game of the year.
Colorado
The Colorado Buffaloes had a surprise season two years ago. Last year, they fell back down to earth.
Despite no longer being the absolute doormat they have been over the last decade, it does not appear they are expected to put up much of a fight against the Huskers in the second week of the season.
Nebraska has a 79.9 percent chance of winning their game against Colorado and starting the season 2-0.
Troy
The Cornhuskers are actually expected to start out 3-0 on the year. That’s the good news.
The fact that Nebraska has an 87 percent chance of beating a Troy team that won 11 games a year ago is definitely something to be happy about. The bad news is that things start to go downhill once they get over Troy.
Purdue
On September 29th, the Huskers play their first home Big 10 game against the Purdue Boilermakers. While they are given a 56.1 chance of winning the game, this is the closest thing to a “tossup” contest the Cornhuskers have on their schedule.
It makes sense the game would be predicted to be close, the matchup between the two teams has been close in the last few years. Purdue is also getting better under it’s new head coach.
Minnesota
October 20th is the date for the matchup against the Minnesota Golden Gophers. The Huskers have dominated this series since they moved to the Big Ten.
Despite renewed energy around the program, ESPN thinks the Huskers have a 65.1 percent chance of winning this matchup according to FPI. This is one of those must-win games if they want to be making a bowl game.
Illinois
This is the last game on the schedule the Cornhuskers are expected to win. With a 74 percent chance of victory, the Nebraska football team is going to need to make sure it wins every single one of these.
Illinois was bad last year. Recruiting is getting better. Can the product on the field get better too?
Because the schedule for the Nebraska football team is hard, there aren’t a ton of games on the schedule earmarked for losses that are likely going to surprise you.
What might shock Husker fans a little bit is just how few chances the team is being given to pull off the upset. Of course, ESPN”s FPI has given the Cornhuskers zero chance of winning out and 0.1 percent chance of winning the conference.
Michigan
According to ESPN, the first loss of the Cornhuskers’ season is coming at the hands of the Wolverines. Nebraska is given just a 10 percent chance of getting a victory at the Big House in Michigan.
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Considering that Jim Harbaugh’s teams haven’t exactly been dominant of late, the low percentage is a bit surprising. The fact that this is the Cornhuskers’ first road game of the season probably plays a part.
Michigan usually having a pretty stout defense likely helps as well.
Wisconsin
ESPN gives the Huskers just a 10.4 percent chance of beating the Badgers. Like Michigan, it seems likely that defense and Nebraska having to play in a very hostile road environment are playing a part.
Wisconsin has also dominated the Cornhuskers since they joined the Big Ten. Scott Frost is going to have to reverse that trend before they start getting the benefit of the doubt.
Northwestern
Of all the games on the schedule that give the Huskers a very low chance of a win that shocks me, it’s this game. Nebraska has done OK very the Wildcats since they joined the conference.
In fact, the Cornhuskers had one of their worst teams in the last 60 years and they almost beat a Wildcat team that was one of their best in school history. The fact that Nebraska only has a 28.4 percent chance of winning this game, while on the road, is not in a particularly hostile environment is appalling.
Ohio State
This is the least shocking projected loss on the entire schedule. The only time the Buckeyes had any problem with the Huskers is when they were fielding their worst team in 20 years and they had to play the backup quarterback for most of the game.
Nebraska, according to ESPN, has just a 6.6 percent chance of winning this contest. This is the kind of situation that isn’t going to change until Scott Frost and company show they are for real.
Michigan State
The Spartans came out of nowhere to have a very good season last year. That is apparently going a long way towards flavoring the 19.2 percent chance the Huskers have of winning this matchup.
In actuality, the Cornhuskers and Spartans have squared off in some barn burners. I have a feeling the story is going to be the same next year. Whoever wins is going to squeak it out, it won’t be a blowout.
Iowa
This is likely the projection that is going to get under Nebraska football fans’ skin the most. The Cornhuskers are projected to have just a 23.7 percent chance of winning their season finale.
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It seems like Iowa is always overrated. If Frost and his coaching staff can really right the ship, there may not be a game on the schedule more ripe for an upset than this one.